The Decision Brief
The mission, the money, the gates, and what is being asked. Written so that anyone at Emerson can follow it, from the production floor to the board, and so that the people who will sign it can check every number. Each figure on this page carries the page it came from; the rest of the site is the evidence.
Make Emerson the measurement and control standard for aqueous grid storage, and use Shakopee to prove the one cell that could turn that standard into a hardware business.
The chemistry is published. Chen 2026 (Nature Communications, February 2026) reports two single-cation cells at pH 7, one on saturated MgCl2 and one on saturated CaCl2, each at 120,000 cycles at 20 A/g; the calcium cell is the stronger anchor (48.3 vs 40.8 Wh/kg, 1.2 vs 1.1 V), and the Mg/Ca blend, which Chen never ran, is Phase 1’s first original result. 01 · Force-box 1
“The first battery that gets cheaper the more the world desalinates.”
Cheaper only where a brine gate fee, a discharge limit, or a co-located plant pays for the concentration; solar-pond bischofite at ~$300/t is the cost floor otherwise. 01 · Force-box 1
Every dollar in Phase 1 buys a measurement Emerson can sell whether or not the battery wins.
The lab is built from the Emerson catalogue: Rosemount 228 conductivity and 3900 pH for electrolyte QA, Micro Motion Coriolis for batching, NI PXI and HPS-17000 for characterization, DeltaV for the purification recipe. Running the campaign produces qualified configurations, application notes, an impurity-tolerance dataset, and brine-duty validation data as a byproduct of answering the chemistry question. Those artifacts have buyers in markets Emerson already serves. The cell is the option; the instruments are the floor. 01 · Claim 2 14 · 05, 06
| Deliverable | Why it is certain | Who buys it | Emerson BU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aqueous electrolyte QA station Rosemount 228 + 3900 + Micro Motion ELITE + a DeltaV recipe |
It is commissioned in the first thirteen weeks to make Phase 1’s own electrolyte; the recipe and the configurations exist before any cycle-life data does. | Na-ion, Zn, flow, and LFP electrolyte lines that need battery-grade aqueous QA | Rosemount |
| Brine-duty instrumentation and recipe packages | Every DeltaV historian log from 5–7 M chloride service is a validation citation in a market where brine-duty proof is scarce. | Desalination, potash, mining | Power & Water; Rosemount |
| UL 9540A / NFPA 855 safety-test and gas-evolution data services on the NI stack | Zone C is built with H2 detection, recombiner headers, and 20+ ACH purge to NFPA 855 §4.10; the test capability stands whether the cell under test is ours or a customer’s. | Non-lithium cell developers and integrators needing third-party gas and fire data | NI Test & Measurement |
Row 1 is the cash cow that exists today; rows 2 and 3 follow any aqueous fleet; rows 4 and 5 are the option.
| # | Surface | Certainty | Conservative | Median | Ambitious |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Existing-product lift: the QA station and brine-duty instrumentation on Rosemount / Fisher / DeltaV / NI lines | Certain to exist, sold into lines that exist today; the size is order-of-magnitude, with no bottom-up count of stations and plants yet. | $50M | $200M | $500M |
| 2 | Plantweb Insight Aqueous SaaS | High margin (5–10× SaaS multiple); needs an aqueous fleet to monitor or service, ours or a customer’s. | $20M | $80M | $300M |
| 3 | Service and maintenance on installed fleet (5–10% of capex) | Emerson’s installed-base service model; needs an aqueous fleet to monitor or service, ours or a customer’s. | $50M | $150M | $250M |
| 4 | Battery hardware (1–10 GWh/yr at scale) | Conditional on Gate 1 and on the Phase 3 build / partner / license decision. | $300M | $1.0B | $2.5B |
| 5 | Battery-as-a-Service fleet | Conditional; requires a ~500-skid managed fleet in the ambitious case. | $15M | $100M | $400M |
| 6 | Four smaller surfaces (brine recovery, copper recovery, carbon credits, IP licensing) | Brine recovery follows any desal customer; the other three follow the cell. | $65M | $260M | $660M |
| Total, all nine surfaces, year 10 (rows foot to $1.79B median, shown rounded) | Clears-Gate-1 floor ~$200M (75% of it hardware, so conditional) | $500M | $1.8B | $4.6B |
Two floors, stated separately so nobody conflates them. If the chemistry clears Gate 1 and adoption is half the conservative case with no brine MOU, year-10 revenue is ~$200M, and three-quarters of that is 0.5 GWh/yr of hardware. If the chemistry fails outright, the floor is the capability portfolio on page 14, in the tens of millions. The $1.8M ask is priced against the first floor at ~0.9% and against the median at 0.1%. 01 · Financial Outlook 14 · Closing
Six stages, seven decisions (M6 sits inside Stage 1). Each one names the money at risk before it is made.
| Stage | Duration | Budget | What it proves | Pass / Kill (numbers) | Decision owner | Cumulative at risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 0 | 90 days (months 1–3) | $200–400K | Independent technical review, contract-lab replication, IP scoping, copper-remediation feasibility, kill criteria written. | Written go-decision, or stop. A negative finding costs one consultant’s fee and 12 weeks. | VP Global Ops & Supply Chain, Measurement Solutions, with the Industrial Wireless PM | $0.4M |
| Stage 1 = Phase 1 | Stage 1 = months 4–12 (9 months); Phase 1 total = 12 months including the 90-day Stage 0. The 13-week build starts inside Stage 0 so the 39-week campaign fits. | $808K–$1.4M Phase 1 total incl. Stage 0: $1.0–1.8M |
Chen’s two cells reproduced at grid rate; carrier identity settled; Cu curve; Track B electrolyte from domestic feedstock. Shakopee L1, ~10,000 SF. | M3 pass: CE >98% post-formation, pH 4.91–7.02, ≥3 reproducible batches (<10% variance); kill: no cell survives 50 cycles, CE <90%, pH excursion >2 units. M6 (primary go/no-go) pass: ≥200 cycles at C/4 with the fade slope measured over cycles 50–200 inside target (<0.10% per 100 cycles), plus ≥1,000 cycles on the 1C arm with retention >90%; CE >99.5%; EIS growth <20%; kill: fade slope >0.25% per 100 cycles, 1C retention <80%, Cu >50 ppm/100 cycles, impedance >50%. M9 Track B: spec derived from the Na/K dose-response with margin (≥99.9% divalent basis as the working assumption), cell match within 5%; kill (Track B only) <99.5%. M12: ~700 cycles at C/4 with ≥90% retention, ≥1,000 at C/2, ≥2,500 on the 1C arm, the calendar-life extrapolation from the 45/60°C float arms, and the carrier verdict; the 39-week campaign is 6,552 hours, which at 8.5–9 hours per C/4 cycle caps the arm near 700, so the 1,000-cycle C/4 point lands in Phase 1.5, month ~15; report recommends fund, modify, or stop. Standing kills at any checkpoint: CE <95% steady-state regime kill, pH outside 4–8. |
Space: Group President. Budget: the Stage 0 owner, on the written go-decision. | $1.8M |
| Phase 1.5 | Months 9–18 | $1.5–3M add’l | Pouch cells match coin cells; slurry coating scales; 1–3 kWh single-layer pouches. | Pouch within 10% of coin. | Program sponsor, on M12 data | $4.8M |
| Phase 2 | Year 2 | $10–25M | 100 kWh module → one skid; Gate 1 two-electron cathode screen; first Plantweb Insight Aqueous instance; Product 6 on real reject brine. | Skid lands inside the LCOS band. | Rosemount and NI BU presidents | ~$30M |
| Phase 3 | Years 3–5 | $80–200M | Pilot line 50–200 MWh/yr; UL 9540A; closed brine + copper loop. Heavy fab; a greenfield or co-located site. | Build, partner, or license. | President, Power & Water / CEO | ~$230M |
| Phase 4 | Years 5–10 | $500M–2B | 1–10 GWh/yr commercial rollout; L2 and beyond; all nine surfaces live. | Defined by the Phase 3 outcome. | Board | up to ~$2.2B |
| Total program envelope | ~$0.6–2.2B over a decade | vs Emerson FY24 revenue ~$17.5B and free cash flow ~$4B+. $2B over ten years is 0.5–1% of annual revenue. 01 · Phase Trajectory | ||||
Answered in the order they will be asked.
What the building has. The shell was tape-measured on June 17, 2026: envelope 135'-4" × 112'-4", about 15,200 SF per floor, two floors. Phase 1 takes ~10,000 SF, about two-thirds of L1, in the campus’s NE-corner shell building (the western ~4,500 SF is the buffer), with one MEP-core keep-out (418 SF), a continuous slab, and three exits already on the envelope. Power, water, and exhaust arrive on the north wall. The field photos show two things to coordinate around: the storage-request workflow the floor already runs, and the corner reserved for the Irvine IT relocation, which holds queue position ahead of ours. L2 stays with its three sanctioned co-tenants through Phase 3. 04 · Field-measured L1 04 · L1 now, L2 for Phases 4–6
What the building lacks, and the fix for each.
- An electrochemistry staff. Six named roles, 3.95 FTE: a PhD electrochemist (lead), a Chemical Hygiene Officer (0.25 FTE, named, with stop-work authority), an instrument tech (CHO deputy), a lab tech, a half-time program manager, and a 0.2 FTE data engineer. The NI and DeltaV application engineers are already on campus. The electrochemist and instrument tech start in Stage 0 for commissioning; all six are in seat by Stage 1 month 1. 11 · Roles
- Wet-chemistry EHS. Four 6-ft hoods in Zone A to a dedicated roof stack; a caustic Cl2 scrubber at the electrowinning and NaOCl station (0.5 ppm stop, 1.0 ppm evacuate); HCN monitoring at the PBA synthesis hood (1 ppm alert, 4.7 ppm STEL evacuate); argon O2-depletion monitors on the Rosemount 928 platform (19.5% leave, 18.0% evacuate); Zone C hydrogen detection with a 20+ ACH purge interlock. All scoped, with the ventilation math, in the operations manual. 11 · Occupancy + floor, gas detection
- Heavy characterization. ICP-OES, XRD, BET, and the NI PXI EIS stack are in-house. Raman and EQCM go to contract labs or by chargeback to NI Austin; the Stage 0 COP synthesis trial goes to a contract manufacturer or university polymer lab. The recommendation here is to consolidate XPS, isotope-labelled ICP-MS, and overflow XRD with one Twin Cities university lab under a shared-data agreement, so the carrier-identity suite has a second instrument set and a second signature. 01 · Where It Goes 11 · Zone C equipment Brief · recommendation
Phase 3’s 50–200 MWh/yr line needs heavy fab, electrolyte loading at scale, DOT-grade transport handling, and cranes. Shakopee is a precision instrumentation floor. The proposal says so on its own page and routes Phase 3 to a greenfield or co-located site. 01 · Phase Trajectory
$1.8M is under 0.05% of FY24 free cash flow (~$4B+). The full decade envelope, $0.6–2.2B, is 0.5–1% of annual revenue (~$17.5B) and is gated seven times before it is spent; no dollar past $1.8M moves without a written result. For scale: the NI acquisition was $8.2B in 2023, the company’s single largest statement of conviction in test and measurement. GE Vernova spends ~$1.5–2B a year on R&D; ABB ~$1.7B. 01 · Phase Trajectory
Automation (DeltaV, Ovation Green BESS). Measurement (Rosemount, Micro Motion). Test (NI, acquired 2023). Software (AspenTech, Plantweb, Zitara). Ventures capital in the energy transition, with a $100M committed fund for environmentally sustainable technologies and an existing position in EECOMOBILITY (November 2024), the AI battery-test analytics partner already named for the cycler stack. Emerson stays what it is: the reference lab whose instruments every aqueous chemistry buys, holding a licensed or partnered cell as the option. Becoming a battery manufacturer is a Phase 3 choice, and licensing is on that menu. Precedent on this campus: the prior Shakopee geothermal R&D pilot, green-lit by the same VP who owns the Stage 0 decision. 01 · Claims 2, 6 01 · Champions
- Route Stage 0 as a Ventures / CTO-office pilot with Rosemount and NI as co-sponsors, sized like a seed ($200–400K). It fits the Ventures mandate and needs no BU capex line.
- Send the external validator package first: the independent reviewer’s memo, plus utility, hyperscaler, and desalination LOIs, so the first meeting opens with third-party letters on the table. 01 · 90-Day Assessment
- Put the kill criteria and the cumulative-at-risk column on page one (they are the table above), so the CFO sees maximum loss per decision before reading a single upside number.
- Name the no-regret deliverables of Stage 1 that survive a kill: qualified instrument configurations, application notes, the impurity-tolerance and cycle-life dataset, the safety-test capability, and two provisional filings (the electrolyte QA spec tied to the measured dose-response with the DeltaV recipe; a bromide/chlorine management scheme if Phase 1 finds one). 01 · Force-box 9
- Time-box the decision. The Stage 0 clock is 90 days. A decision that has not been made by day 90 is a no, and the team says so up front.
- Ask for the shell space and the staff requisitions, together with the budget. Space and headcount are what a Group President can grant directly; budget alone leaves the program on paper.
Three sentences an executive can repeat without embarrassment.
- We reproduced the published cell in both electrolytes, saturated MgCl2 and saturated CaCl2, on our own floor with our own instruments, and mapped the blend between them. 03 · M3, M12
- We measured life at grid rate and settled who carries the charge. ~700 cycles at C/4 with ≥90% retention, ≥1,000 at C/2 and ≥2,500 on the 1C arm, the copper-accumulation curve, and the calendar-life extrapolation from the 45/60°C float arms on the record; the divalent fraction of inserted charge reported with an uncertainty; hydrogen, oxygen and chlorine quantified per cell at every 100-cycle checkpoint by pressure-transducer cells and headspace GC, with the DPD / iodometric hypochlorite assay (the 1,000-cycle C/4 point lands in Phase 1.5, month ~15). 03 · Success Criteria, M6, M12
- We built a DeltaV electrolyte purification recipe with a measured impurity spec, the divalent-basis spec derived from the contamination rig (≥99.9% as the working assumption) from domestic feedstock, per-species tolerances from the same rig, and we know which side of LFP parity the chemistry sits on in $/kWh-cycle. 03 · Track B 01 · Beyond Chen
Three reading paths. Pick the one that fits the time you have.
| Time | Read, in order | What you will be able to say afterward |
|---|---|---|
| Six minutes | This page. | The mission, what it costs, where it can be stopped, and what survives if the battery fails. |
| Thirty minutes | The 12-Minute Pitch → The Floor Plan → the first section of the FAQ → If the Battery Fails. | How the lab is laid out, the questions people actually ask, and the downside case in gate order. |
| The full evidence | The Proposal → The Protocol → The Operations Manual → The Reading Textbook for the chemistry from first principles. | Enough to defend or attack every number on this page, including the science the program has not yet settled. |